It seems that the current United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) List will loose seats and former Prime Minister Allawi’s List will gain seats in the next December 15th election. The people of Iraq are dissatisfying with the performance of the government. Mohammed of Iraq The Model
recall that two weeks ago, we expected that the Iraqi Alliance would assume a change in strategy and according to an interview published on al-Sabah this morning, we weren’t wrong in our expectation; Nadeem al-Jabiri the head of the Fadheela Party (one of the 4 major components of the alliance) said in the interview that their goal is to achieve at least 1/3 of the seats of the Parliament as that would grant them the ability to block any alliance between other blocs.
The people in the Alliance realize very well that their chances to lead a government are getting smaller but they’re still in a state of denial, as one can conclude from al-Jabiri’s words “We have put in our plans that the Alliance shall win at least 1/3 of the seats so that no government can be formed without the Alliance…”.
I’d call is a dream rather than a plan because the other two major blocs that are most likely to be part of a government which are Allawi’s and the Kurds seem more inclined to unite among themselves after the elections to form the government rather than to keep power in the hands of the United Alliance.None of this is for sure as of now but the recent friendly meetings between Allawi and the Kurdish leaders like the latest with Barzani makes one think that if these two blocs get enough votes, then the United Alliance will have no choice but to become the opposition.
Mohammed is not who predict that the UIA will loose seats. Nibras Kazimi
at the Talisman Gate predicts the same thing.
I’ve also been hearing that the Iranians are doing feverish polling activity around Iraq, and have concluded that their acolytes in the UIA list are in trouble.
If the composition of the next Iraq government changes, it is a very good thing. Not because I favor one party over the other. It is good because it illustrates democracy at work. Government must perform to stay in power. It also shows that those who were concerned about that the Islamist tendency of the Iraqi Alliance List were wrong. It does not matter. In a democracy, the ideology of a particular party in power is unimportant in the long term. They must adjust to the wish of the constituent to remain in power.
Democracy also affects how foreign power deals with a country. In Iraq – both the US and Iraq neighbors must take into account Iraq domestic political atmosphere. The US will find ourselves have less influence on what the Iraqi government does – which actually is not a bad thing – in fact it is a very good thing. Trying to win influence over foreign governments at the objection of the population has not been good for the US reputation. Another benefit is that the theocracy in Iran will also find that it also has less influence over the government of Iraq. It (like the US) cannot pressure the Iraqi government to implement policies that the Iraqi population opposes. Like Mohammed, I am very sanguine about the future of Iraq.